Some Hope In Latest Forecasts
March 9th, 2009
While the mainstream media has focused on gloomy headline figures in the NZIER’s latest quarterly survey, there is some positive thinking in it as well. The organisation says over the next year, a combination of lower interest rates than in 2008, lower petrol prices, still relatively high wage inflation, further tax cuts in April and growing immigration will (we fervently hope) stimulate a modest increase in private consumption.
It also predicts dairy export volumes will start to recover during the next year. Economic growth in NZ’s trading partners is expected to strengthen during 2010. But as always there’s a downside. The forecaster says it will be a long, slow grind back to economic normality. Full recovery will take some time – around four years for the NZ economy to return to over 3% annual growth.
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